electronic solution

so i'm gonna start with teymoor. please state short, sharp questions. thank you and thank you for the presentation i wonder whether since all of you agreedthat it's a political solution that we need i wonder whether i might suggest withthe greatest of respect for the gap between your learning and mine if imight suggest that the political solution that we're talking about isactually the wrong one i mean you're you're framing the question as what arewe going to do about the situation in

the south china sea and professor huangsuggested that the us-china relationship isn't another layer to this but i wouldsuggest that these two actually inextricably linked will not the southchina sea question simply disappear if we sort out the other problem which isthe us-china great power relationship and the question behind this is howpossible is that because it seems that the u.s. is terms for a politicalsolution is that china submits to what the us decrees to be the internationalsituation the international norm and it's very clear that china hasdetermined that it will not do so so is there a solution possible okthat's a very good question maybe jing

and yuen foong get an answer from thechinese and american perspective ok maybe come over here again as i saidshort, sharp question okay focused. i'm jk i came from iron gasindustry but for some bong sam dhabi and later back tell as support professorkishore idea that there will be no war that's most important because i speakfrom to singapore perspective we saw war in vietnam after that what is selfproblem professor jing says he watched sovereignty the maps thatinterest the eye and a fish do we have a solution i think we have

the oil is the problem if we can solvethe oil in the seventies in the activists in the nineties the greatestwe are rich that should be the solution thank you ok can you recommend joint cooperation on oil ok kanti will touch on that. good afternoonprofessors my name is lawson i like your perspective from these 3 key points i like tobring out. the first one is deng xiaoping he is a key translator saw china as acivilization of state so it says that china's history is not just now but afew thousand years of history to consider

so that's all he sees the territory aswell and during the nineteen sixty students helping actually put the southchina sea issue on kiv (keep in view) so apparently china is always faced thisissue close to its heart and i like your perspective on the 19th century,a century with that china endured a lot of humiliation like the burning and lootingof property processors and unequal treaties and all this it seems to comefrom one source the south china sea where the opium war started, where gun boatdiplomacy started so i like you all to go through the historical perspectiveand psyche of china from all these historical links

okay thank you i'll ask jing to focus onthat impact of nineteenth-century of humiliation on this issue ok if you take one more question andthen and then going to answer them come back to you okay please afternoonprofessors and i noticed that you noticed that no interviews yourself tothem my name is ronnie i'm a graduate student at the lee kuan yew school ofpublic policy i was very inspired by what all of yousaid you noted that no international power really respects international lawin that sense do you think that the hague tribunal wasted its time and youthink they're ruling added fuel to the

fire when it comes to negotiating thesouth china sea dispute thank you ok maybe can't even knowsabout you and i can answer that question okay so why don't we start with a firstone maybe doing in info can answer teamsquestion first ok first about political solution is notwhat we frame like this it's a reality actually think you're being set as wellas 1990s that shoves the dispute join the development much matter fact chinais the only claim in the country that recognize there is a dispute in suchannecy territory although the country says there's nodispute whatever is mine is mine so but

what happens as a change of thesituation just now some nation that i say you found that in nineteen ninetiesin the early 21st century chinese seems benign power because she had no choice china has to be able i power vs chinawas established 9014 i china's short arms your legs short i side charity tohave did not have any capability to exert a project powerless and fantasychannel can do as long as the channels like church services all my nobody caresbecause chinese economy but in the past 10 years china's power to put yet thecomfortability project power to manipulate and control the neighborhoodincreased dramatically so the fact is

now when chinese state such as all myeverybody cares that's what china's policy increase that's reality andhighland said that so lets you said if united states decided to leave and we'retrying to solve the issue politically i think that's what i'm the first to donot only because china's rise in power or have to respect the internationalrole but also because of china's national interests and china's rise isvery unique if you compare tans rise with a previousrise in power you can see two fundamental differences the firstfundamental differences china does not have the now have does not have i don'tsee the channel will have in the near

future a global reach militarycapability if you look at the previous rising powers be the united statesgermany japan soviet union they're all british of course they allhave a military capability to find massive walls all all course the worldall over the world challenge you'll have that capability second that's why whenchina's ricin is a process of joining me integrity itself in excess internationalsystem lat established element n by united states and our allies that otherpowers while rising the process of the rising the process of challenges successthe international system but i was there that is that will other countries reallywant to negotiate with china without

this kind of fear this kind of conceptbeing bullied by this might major a pattern mighty china that's anotherreason because the so-called the china trip is not because chances are big andpowerful is that because china's future is unpredictable it's this uncertainty that caused amajor issue for the political solution solution another reality that unitedstates and china engage each other try to hold a strategic balance andsouth china sea happened to be a . the engaging each other for this becausekeep in mind whoever controls honest ii controlswestern pacific that's a bloody lesson

we learn from world war group and forchina's national safety no chances leaders can have a sound sleep i couldsleep without a kind of insurance the south china sea would not be used as apoint to the compare or against china because that's also history and somepeople just mention case report that and now talk about that later but that'swhat i said the critical solution is a reality is not someone's freeman wecannot free massolution like that at all scholars in formulation think about thethat it only resolve in the us general issues and all you are if i understandyour question team what you're saying is that you if you if the us and china ican solve rdr

have good diplomatic relations then thesouth china sea will be a situation will be much more tractable on for me betweenthe two issues the one that is less tractable is the long-term situation ofa us-china relations so the south china sea one is actually seems to me moretractable because the u.s. in a sense it's not a claimant and the reason why isay this is because what we're witnessing now is the onset of what apolitical scientist called power transition dynamics in the east asiaregion which means that they exist the established power the us are is beingchallenged by rising power china and a lot of local things will be done in twowill be seen as the test of the

credibility of our both powers in theway that are wondering has talked about us policy and strategy with respect toeast asia has been very consistent it is pretty prevent the rise of a hostilehegemon basically the us would like to remain the primary power or have privacyin the region so the us will resist the rice of the hostages but not just thisasia but in europe and in the persian gulf to those are the three areas thatthe u.s. cares most about and so if the if china is able to project very strongpower in the soft tryna see that will be seen as a challenger to the us so so inthat sense the two are very hard to extricate but it seems to me thepotential power dynamics in the rising

power establish power dynamics betweenchina and us is the more intractable one finally even if the us and china areable to come to a very emotive nd on how to deal with this asia what china calls are great you knowour great power relations proper great power relations the rest of the rest ofthe powers in east and southeast asia might not like it because it may end up with a spear ofinfluence our arrangement where you know so long as the us interests are met china can do certain things within theregion i don't think the asean states

now will find that very reassuringcontinue no talk about whatever one about oil briefly and then about whetheror not the hague tribunal was a waste of time yeah well i focused on fisheries becausefairly simply because oil and gas run out eventually and the fish can also runwell we can but but that's why you need the organization yeah and you've got a chance ofreplenishing fish if it's husband it properly fish will make more fish butoil doesn't make more oil and gas doesn't make more gas so there's a veryfinite end to that as the basis on which

you can construct cooperative relationsplus i think you know the amount of oil but you probably know more so isrelatively limited i mean some estimates say it might provide enough oil and gasfor about 15-20 years so at present rates of consumption for the region inchina so it seems to me fishes a better bet and many of the episodes anddifferences and clashes have actually occurred over fish and fishing trawlersand fish and so on not over oil so far so fish is not a glorious subject inwhich to build a regional order frankly but sounds fishy to me sounds fishy tome and but now i agree it might it mightmight be the basis for something

sensible so if you have a status quo on territoryyou've got to look around for something that will bring people together and givethem a stake in maintaining the status quo and it seems to be fisheries is thaton the international law i mean i don't want to be too cynical aboutinternational law just heard that no great bar ever respect international law i mean the fact is that most countriesmost of the time including the great bars respect most international law it'sonly some international law at some time that they don't respect often andcrucially bad times but let's not go

away from this meeting thinking thatthere's no international law out there that the great bars ever you knowrespect i think i like in phone calls . which is that the united states andothers often come to respect the spirit of these judgments even not exactly thethe formal letter of it altogether so there is good hope in that too i thinkwhen the dust settles and yeah i mean i ronnie's . about whether it's madethings worse by having the pca ruling i mean i suppose i would say in the shortterm it has but in the longer term it sent a message out there to the effectthat not even china and all the us or anybody else is outside the purview ofinternational law and there's something

to be said for a certain kind of moralline to be drawn even in international relations and a plus please note that many other countrieshave used the unclass rules complex as they are to determine this thecontinental shelves their boundaries their visa the other countries so ithink this reaffirms that what they did all those other countries that haveabided by the unclass provisions that that was not useless ok i can i agree we can't these pointsvery strongly is that also that more than ever since i was 17

most of the time most great powersrespect international goal so it'sit's these exceptions that i was talkingabout it ok just one sentence or two over thehistory question how relevant is minus century of humiliation is thataffecting south china sea yes and i was asked many times what isthe china talking about messaging being different people have differentexplanations of thousands of sanitary but all the chinese overseas or insidechina where we are one point and that is challenging means never ever let 1840happen again to china you know 1840s ok war that started others but if you wantokay so i can give another history i

picked because it's a fantasy historymatters if you allow me and the kinds speak a few words more and the chineseclaims that historical association simple switch and it does not stand acareful scooty because in agricultural civilization incident of years chinesevietnamese monday's filipinos are ups india's all company sells chance ofefficient tree nobody claimed territories because in agriculturalcivilization there's no such a concept of territorialsovereignty currently in the sovereignty as a concept of industrializationresulted from a nation state building often naturalization so this kind ofconcept what brought it about western

powers during colonial period that's whythe first government claims social sales a territory is a french colonygovernment in saigon in 1963 they claim they first played simultaneously as ourtime republic of china in the civil war made a counterclaim in 96 but before theboth countries can solve the different conflicting claims we have what with whoand the japanese came to wipe out a recent occupied knows all the southchina sea after 90 fortify japan was surrendered and relinquished all itsclaims in the south china sea to give however all circumstances but that isonly two countries in this area republic of china and the philippines but unitedstates as a lender pilate lesson that is

where control something salty odysseycan straighten americans national security so united states 1r lie tocontrol sansa together as a time that is republic of china republic channels that time did not havea neighbor wiped out by the japanese so it is an american warship kairos chinesesoldier under the leadership of general thing john went to start trying to say1946 these are serving name of the island pressures whatever and the truth11 dash line with thea tone was still to do now know how this is the 11 th lightwas slow down stolen by the chinese government as a character line but we doknow the fact the 11 th life was the

result of china-us collaboration in 1946in 1940 server it becomes on the map changes back the territory line that's ahistory and so now you don't give you giving the americans the credit for the11 th like that we have american friends can't explain that but indeed that is aresult the 11 th light was actually told by american navy is not by the chinese 3which ideas did not have a navy other part ok you can see something on thehumiliation yes i mean it's true that mostpost-colonial countries all have a sense of victimhood and humiliation but thatdoesn't mean that all of them are unable

to solve any quarrels leftover fromhistory india china itself like i pointed out as solved many territorialcoral yeah so you know independence means what ultimately control overterritory china has been willing to compromise andterritorial issues at particular juncture so i think i wouldn't want tooverplay this issue of sort of victimhood arising out of the century ofhumiliation all countries have something like it china went through it too but china hascompromised and territory when it suited it's interesting so so you should add weindians we've been you related much more

yeah i mean in the register ofhumiliation sorry i can see there's that any effort as a better india you happento be right for what is that ok you can be expected thank you very much for the comments myname is ray from china in the mpp course and professor wall mentioned in hispresentation that a gray area could be the key of the compromise among all theparties involved and what do you think could be the gray area that couldpotentially be agreed by all of the parties involved and how do you think wecan introduce this gray area into a situation that is as tense as intense asthe one right now

good good question you can answer thequestion great piece yeah thanks to the panel are my questionis more apps on my name is more i am from china have a simple questions orchina and other asian countries have been negotiating on this issue for yearsso why hasn't the negotiation worked out it seems to me that the only solution isuploaded cuando country wants to go to war over this then in negotiations youreally want to make a win-win situation or wanda zero-sum game so why hasn't the obvious become thereality thank you ok good question country you know dressthat it in for maybe no but i thought

i'd say something about her now oneabout gray area ok ok the one thing that strikes me butyou don't really like you're not taking a few more questions and then i just ijust like signing questions hi maybe you can answer the questionwill be tight and i'm alex from the uk you mentioned that china has compromisedon territory in the past but generally for the position of weaknesses and todayit's a strong nation you have all agreed that they can only be a politicalsolution but presumably a political solution will require negotiation andcompromise could china actually feel that that put undermines its positionwith far more important

this territorial disputes that it hastoday namely taiwan that it doesn't want to be seen as a country that compromiseswhen it has the issue of taiwan the issue of tibet thank you thank you maybe doing you can answer that question of their yeah hi my name is so mean i'm a recentgraduate from the bachelor of the environmental studies program just knowyou talk about the eye and fish which are the two major resources in southchina sea and you also mentioned that links when it comes to our i bit isn'tthat much of the reserve and when it comes to fish i have seen a lot ofupsetting news about environmental

damage in south china sea so here's a crazy idea is it possible toset a site the this disputed areas as a nature reserve and keep it for thenature thank you well that's what i call amissionary proposal county will deal with it and my name is hamid mr. heyandy student question is basically the way where you from saudi arabia okaygoodnight i know i want i want the audience to know how diverse the week onyour school to the problem so question a question about that thetwo-layer relationship between us and china and over all the things going onin the south china sea

i mean we've we've seen two power playswon by the united states which is the tpp agreement is going on from china isthat the one belt one road although that a lot of nations especially in the southchina sea has been an ally in with us we're going to the tvp we've seen sometalks maybe it's going to be part of the election hyperbole is going on in theunited state but there's some kind of talks of going back in the tpp agreementand we've seen some messages from countries especially singapore strongmessages that those countries have given a lot of sacrifices to reach anagreement in the teepee and they don't like the idea of what they hear aboutgoing back into

so that my question would be if suchscenario happened which is kind of scenario that might happen in the futurewith this credible or not but if such a scenario that the new president ofunited states goes back in the teepee how would that the ballast in the regionand we will you see the people or the claimants within the region flock tochina and maybe they feel betrayed by the united state ok maybe your phone i can answer thequestion let's take two more quickly over here and then i will give time fortheir hello many was edwards and repairs from san diego california

i'm an mp a graduate student i know frommy observation might be at my previous work in california that sometimes policyis so it's always subject to the whims of elections in it relates to our fellowcolleague from saudi arabia about united states domestic policy i wanted to getsome of your thoughts since $year presidential elections are looming inthe united states about each particular candidate if they were to becomepresident how would their foreign policy would be somehow impacted and somehowinfluence and talk in terms of the profile tissue of south trying to seeparticularly with the republican party canada as well as democrat . drum plus asplint on south china sea absolutely

sick gingka answer there okay quickly becauseyou know what you want to give time for the people that respond armies readingprofessors my name is what and i'm a graduate student in the mpp programreally all of your from from cambodia or you could i believe that are all of youhave touch upon the fact that most superpowers as well as some claimestates are trying to save face in terms of trying to solve this loose as tryingto find a solution to this problem so i just wanted to know whether the thefactor of saving face could be used to for me likely solutions for the southchina sea for example

the claimant state as well as china aswell as the us could somehow take a step back and focus on something else insteadof going and added full force and because of seven places also one of thefactors that could solve some of the potential conflict in a pass so thankyou thank you now i have to ask you a one-linequestion you don't want to give time for to respond to 1234567 that we i it isreported that are witnesses sending yourselves to his island and dismissalsis able to hit the chinese island yesterday so i would like to know thathow is the south china sea issue is going to affect seeing as a wholebecause with most notable the first

country to reclaim and that may be thefirst one to send me cells so how is it going to affect the power transitiondynamics and sen okay maybe i'll answer the question the last one ok so why dowe go you know we have 15 minutes so maybeeach one of you can take two or three minutes each to respond to the questionsand doubts that maybe we go in the reverse order now start with you yourphone and i guess you can touch on tpp and we actually you can answer thequestion on trump and clinton or so and why haven't the negotiations worked outso far okay why don't i start on start withwhite the negotiations on heaven worked

up so far i mean as you put it why hasn't the obvious become ourreality i think partly is because it is actually not that obvious because youcan also gain a lot by military pressure by being the first one to grab someislands and chinese are not the only culprit our vietnam malaysia by oneeveryone has done it are in this in the south china sea andso and i think the 2009 requirement of the people of our states are sort ofestablishing that claims with the un play the role in the dynamic of everyonewanting to claim what they think you know is the ask so this dynamic r isthat play and if you are in a position

to the build structures are to cleanlines are including using military pressure you are likely to be a hitafter all our another edition that we are all very used to is possession isnine-tenths of the law if you're there you know you're there and it'sinteresting the week that can't be a nice thought that i thinking aboutsolutions we said except the status school are and none of you ask that younot put pushes on that the stairs school is one which has now changed quite a bityou know are from 5-6 years ago right so in that sense you know are the notionthat possession is nine-tenths of the law

it's a very interesting propositionsecond question on our implications of if the tpp is not let's say ratified inthe us what are the implications are for theregion i think your questions are very good onebecause there are people in the region to see the tpp as an extremely importantour policy where the u.s. can come back are to be a top economic agents in theregion at least provided an alternative to the chinese juggernaut right so if itis not ready by anything false true after you know some of the smallercountries have been put the next on the chopping block to try to make itpossible it will actually be very this

happening and this is in the context ofas you put it ar111 that one wrote about right whichis an extremely attractive economic proposition for all in asean so the deepquestion that is behind actually your remarks is that are the strategic ally moments of the countries in asean likelyto shift if the tpp is not realized and our that's actually yet perhaps in theway that cambodia and laos as many people perceive already you knoweverybody shifted that's a very good question and overtime actually the shiftof this apple in my view is not so much that in order to prosper economicallythe other countries will feel that they

have to go on the china chinesebandwagon it is more that they may have to give more serious consideration tochina's views and china's interest in the whole array of issues from the southchina sea to you know well who should be you know our president of the asiandevelopment bank and things of that sort so you can those subtle political shiftsmay happen r s the countries in accion realized inthe weather lunch will in the future may have to become from just one line trumpor clinton which is better for south china sea probably trump from listenerswill become the chinese self respective highways trouble because trump says thathe's going to if japan and korea listen

you know . share for the analyzes he'sgoing to you know withdraw if the usb draws then ran away with the the vacuumwill be easily filled ok ok i'll start from there i think that the good news isthat heather has a better chance absolutely about the sava but that's china prefertrump or clinton i said if i were chants leaders i prefer hillary clinton reallycause she is predictable and yes you can pretty cold water policy is was thisregion we know how human being first read that not because of is a bad guytough guy and nasty guy that because we're facing a guy can never tell whathis next move is

and consider this if trump trump becomepresident we have shin king we have our pay modi we're putting of course of a yearon is rising up everyone's very tough right now the police go home just likethis what kind of situation i do not believeserve china's interests if united states just go home and that because chinaneeds are united in our system which china has been benefited so much in theso-called peaceful rise i do not believe a class ofinternational system service china's best interests

tromp tromp is a disaster because thisguy's unpredictable council and about gray area gray area sweet categoriesnumber one is your attitude towards these thoughts at this field we knowthat the china said there are trying to always recognize that there are disputesin the south china sea when i say that this bill that is that this build thatmeans i'm willing to negotiate it is those as a no dispute that nonegotiation as the first people before the ruling at least like they're not allthe involved parties two different decrease thanks there is a tease people the seconddispute is about a gray area is about

your definition of the features is ahydraulic loti rock i lines over and so on and so forth chinese vietnamese filipinos malaysia's/ nice have their own definitions that's a career areas because i disagree withthe third error category of gray areas the people luke has issues from differentperspectives chinese emphasize on history so historical perspective filipinosemphasize international law and maliciously emphasis something else lastgray areas but with this routing come

out is that no history doesn't count no nine-dash line as a no ireland's allrocks if they put into a bar the type in where china on the chain prize occupants1946 with sufficient freshwater is not ireland is a rock and that when thiskind of julian come out is a black-and-white take-it-or-leave-it andpeople have to take side that's why when julian come out no one wants to excitethe best example is you where the home of other international laws was youstatements about julie your statement said we acknowledge this rudy onlyacknowledge those who learn english those acknowledge is the weakest wordscan be used in this right you support

you will come you very nice at least butwhich is acknowledged that's a very very bad statement from philippinesperspective and also not very good statement from how do you explain thisgu week statement you know better than i do i'm not going to take your bait and ihaha announce them ok upon the good wiser presentnegotiations resulted in a solution the answer is very simple all thecountries exist this area keep developing a keep changing just likeyou're growing up the d man you have as a five years oldand pay yourself and 15 years old and 18 years old a quite different the problemsthat countries like china garage comply

to apu one year so china's demandchina's capability and china's interest keep changing and so are other countriesvietnam philippines malaysia brunei and the united states don't you ever forgetthe united states and japanese where all those countries in a very fasttransition and it's very difficult to negotiate during this kind of us it'skind of situation in which everyone doing which everyone is changing fastlee i think that's the reason so mysuggestion which i didn't say that a solution they started from not from whatwe should do which is negotiate what we should not do in the first place andabout parity spilled i went to bed very

sure people our conflict involves twocategories one category is about what we want if your interest is about what we wantwe can always strike a deal less or more but another kind of conflict involved what who we are about identity you lookat history people kill each other not because of the different interestsand what they want always a different interest out who theyare and taiwan habit matters about china's national identity there's no way a chinese leader cansurvive the compromise on that because

taiwan happened from china's perspectiveafter 1840 power happened the first piece of land china's to surrender to whom thejapanese after hong kong of the michael taiwan remains that last piece of blockof land from china's first perspective have not returned to the motherland so as lost highways out there china'snationalism national pride remains incomplete so this is about the chinesebroad is about chinese who they are that's why forget it if you want trying to make acompromise and pepper and taiwan because

those two issues matters chinese are notwhat chinese one and i said about donald ramen under and the condenser laptop ok can tlet say one word about the question of saving face in order and fish naturereserve yeah i just think that the issue ofterritory is always about control of over something for some reason and ithink james . is a good one in the case of taiwan in tibet has something to dowith who the chinese think they are identity andso on the good news about the south china sea is that nobody lives there areno human beings there there's no really

sacred ground it's not some sort ofreligious space so it's not intimately bound up with it seems to me withchinese identity deep down now if you want to control the south china sea andit's not bound up with identity then it's a matter of the resources there soif it's a matter of the resources there then you can cut a deal and that's jointdevelopment and that's i pitch for fishing in joint development of coursethere is joined development of the oil resources and gas as well it's just thati just don't think it would last as long so i think that's the gray area in a wayyou know china and the other states can all maintain their claims to theseislands sandbars atolls whatever you

want to call them so everyone can telltheir populations that they've maintained they run up the flag and theymaintain a right to that land eventually all that portion of c sonobody has to go home and you know be shamefaced in front of their ownpopulations that same time all the fruits of control sovereignty is aboutcontrol right have something for some reason all the material stuff below thesea you cut a deal on who gets how much oil fish mineral modules at the bottomof the sea so in effect you maintain your right tosovereignty and you've got a deal over what you can extract from you knowfrom from this area i think china it

seems to be quite extraordinary how wellchina is dealt with kind of joint sovereignty or i don't know sovereigntypostponed kind of situations and waited and waited and waited for hong kong andit still has kind of one country two systems in place there how manycountries would tolerate a system like that on taiwan it maintains its right toreintegrate taiwan fully but it's waited and waited and waited and has signaledessentially that unless there's some extraordinary circumstance which is anoutright declaration of independence it will not invade taiwan and integrated byforce i mean how many countries would be thatpatient in in this kind of situation so

i think china has demonstrated that itit can be flexible and very sensible and sophisticated about these kind of jointsovereignty or ambivalence sovereignty situation perhaps like no other countryon the face of the earth so it gives me hope that this gray area issue that youraised in this leave it in a gray area everyone declare that they still holdtheir right to it and then just go ahead and exploit it and so on up to yourpoint about yeah i mean fantastic it could be declared a nature park you knowsome very noble global good citizenship cause like that probably that would bepart of a kind of regional fisheries management situation

well you know i began by saying thatthis whole meeting was a big experiment we've never done this before but i showyou all agree that this experiment is being very worthwhile for us didn't knowwhat you're going to say when you walk into this room but you could see at theend of the day quite surprisingly a certain degree of convergence towardssome areas i'm a over simplify some of the things but as you know we all beganby a green number one that there will be no war will be no military solution nowthat everybody will be military maneuver sir that will happen they'll be reclamation of violence butthe kind of outright conflict that

people have been predicting is unlikelyto happen a second degree of convergence which i saw and felt in the discussionis that china actually as the new rising power has actually a lot at stake interms of the international rules of the game and if china is the number-oneswirled trading power in china now has more exports and imports lisa v the rest of the world and unitedstates does the china's larger interest in freedom of navigation and keepinginternational cd is open and always actually now larger than that of theunited states which traditionally the defender of freedom of navigation and soon so forth so i'm sure the chinese

being very rational actors in oninternational matters well i'm sure factor in their largerglobal interests when they come to make decisions on the south china sea becauseit's not that is not wise for a rational ector like china two sacrifices globalinterest for some narrow interests in the missile genesee so that's anotherreason for believing that there will be a nudge towards a political solution nowthirdly i want to touch on the subject actually has been discussed very littlewhich is the last question which is what is a serious role in all this and let mebegin with a good news i'm writing a book on the subject will be on sale injanuary and but in one of the main

points i do make in the book which alsodiscusses us and china yeah us and generations as young is that both us andchina now actually have to make a fundamental decision as to whether ornot their interests are better served with a nasty and that is shattered andbroken apart or the other interests served with us and staying together andkeeping a certain degree of stability in the region and the conclusion i couldhave come to is that actually serves both chinese and american in trust you keep asking them together andso that's why i actually idea today i'm despite the recent eight cups resetthese recent failures of asean diplomacy

i think that accion world continue andeven if we take a vietnam for example what's interesting is that if you watchvietnam's behavior it's fascinating gettin me gettin china i've only beenfighting each other only for 2,000 years that's all and yet none was occupied bychina 4,000 years but every chinese every vietnamese leader knows their theend of the day no matter what happens yet not must get along with china and sothey always say if you if you have a leader in vietnam if we cannot bothstand up to and at the same time get along with china then he's not a goodleader so that's the challenge of the galaxythat everybody's got to maintain in this

region and i think that balance will bemaintained asean in the years to come so i hope that we have at least to someextent throw in some light on the problem of south china sea thank youvery much and please join me in thanking the families